Evidencing Local Climate Change And Its Implications for Subsistence Agriculture Planning In Huambo Province Angola, Southern Africa
Keywords:
Local Climate Change, Subsistence FarmingAbstract
Intensifying climate change is becoming increasingly apparent in Southern Africa with
modified precipitation patterns and increases in temperature affecting growing seasons, agricultural production, and food security for small-scale farmers. While there is a strong commitment from agricultural extension services to plan the management of climate change impacts in the region, these endeavors are hampered by a lack of knowledge on how climate scenarios will develop at a scale relevant to local communities. In this paper, we construct new scenarios for climate change in Huambo province, Angola, based on colonial and postcolonial local climate data sets. In so doing we highlight the role that this type of archived – physical - data can have in constructing future climate scenarios and which can form a foundation for local land evaluations and community adaptations.
Our case study is the province of Huambo in Angola, particularly sensitive to climate change with a rainy and dry season, and over 85% subsistence farming is typical of many areas of the region. The climate data sets used run from 1960 to the present day and include temperature, rainfall, and evapotranspiration. Trend detection, climatic variability, and temperature and precipitation projection were determined by the statistical reduction methods using regression, correlation and time series analysis; statistical prediction methods included integrated autoregression models and moving average (ARIMA). Our findings suggest a continuing increase in temperature, decline in rainfall, increase in the length of the dry season and reduction on the number of rainy days, the impact of which will vary with soil water Clmateholding capacity and agricultural land management mitigation measures.
References
C.L. Davis. Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa. Pretoria, South Africa: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, 2011, pp. 92.
M. Hulme, R. Docherty, T. Ngara, M New, D. Lister (2001) ‘African climate change: 1900-2100.’ Climate Research, vol. 17, pp. 145–168, 2001.
P.G. Jones, P.K. Thornton, P. K. ‘The potential impacts of climate change on maize production in Africa and Latin America in 2055’, Global Environmental Change, vol 13 , pp. 51–59, 2003.
M.V.K. Sivakumar, H.P. Das, O. Brunini. ‘Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics.’ Climate Change, vol. 70, pp. 31–72, 2005.
P.K. Thornton, P. K., P.G. Jones, P.J. Ericksen, A.J. Challinor. ‘Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 369, pp. 117–136, 2011.
O. Serdeczny, S. Adams, F. Baarsch, D. Coumou, A. Robinson, W. Hare, M. Schaeffer, M. Perrette, J. Reinhardt ‘Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions.’ Regional Environmental Change, vol. 15, pp. 1585-1600, 2016.
M. Ndlovu, A.D. Clulow, M.J. Savage, L. Nhamo, J. Magidi, T. Mabhaudhi. ‘An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in KwaZulu-Natal Province , South Africa.’ Atmosphere, vol. 12, pp. 1–24, 2021.
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Angola Country Programming Framework 2013-2017. Luanda, Angola, FAO, 2012, pp. 41.
F. Carranza, J. Treakle, P. Groppo. Land, Territorial Development and Family Farming in Angola. A holistic approach to community-based natural resource governance: The cases of Bie, Huambo, and Huila Provinces. Rome, FAO, 2014, pp. 52.
M.L. Parry, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, M.T.J. Livermore, G.W. Fischer ‘Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios.’ Global Environmental Change, vol. 14, pp. 53–67, 2004.
G. Fischer, M. Shah, F.N. Tubiello, H. van Velhuizen.. ‘Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment of agriculture, 1990–2080’, : Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, vol. 360, pp. 2067–2083, 2005.
K.L. Maharjan, N.P. Joshi. Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Livelihoods in Developing Countries. 2013, pp 180.
I. Niang, O.C. Ruppel, M. Adrabo, E. Ama, C. Lennard, J. Padgham et al. ‘Chapter 22 Africa.’ In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V.R. Barros, C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir et al. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2014, pp. 1199–1265.
M. Ndlovu, A.D. Clulow, M.J. Savage, L. Nhamo, J. Magidi, T. Mabhaudhi. ‘An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in KwaZulu-Natal Province , South Africa.’ Atmosphere, vol. 12, pp. 1–24, 2021.
F. Kaspar, J. Helmschrot, A. Mhanda, M. C. Butale, W. P. de Clercq, J. Kanyanga et al. ‘The SASSCAL contribution to climate observation , climate data management and data rescue in Southern’. Advances in Science and Research, vol. 12, pp. 171–177, 2015.
R. Posada, D. Nascimento, F.O.S. Neto, J.O. Riede, F. Kaspar. ‘Improving the climate data management in the meteorological service of Angola: experience from SASSCAL.’ Advances in Science and Research, vol. 13 pp. 97–105, 2016.
N. Limones, J. Marzo-Artigas, M. Wijnen, A. Serrat-Capdevila. ‘Evaluating drought risk in data-scarce contexts. The case of southern Angola’. Journal of Water and Climate Change, vol. 11, pp. 44–67, 2020.
M. Ndlovu, A.D. Clulow, M.J. Savage, L. Nhamo, J. Magidi, T. Mabhaudhi. ‘An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change in KwaZulu-Natal Province , South Africa.’ Atmosphere, vol. 12, pp. 1–24, 2021.
R. Luetkemeier, S. Liehr. ‘Integrated responses to drought risk in Namibia and Angola.’ Water Solutions vol. 3, pp. 56–61, 2019.
P.K. Thornton, P. K., P.G. Jones, P.J. Ericksen, A.J. Challinor. ‘Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, vol. 369, pp. 117–136, 2011.
W. de Clercq, J. Helmschrot, M. de Witt, T. Himmelsbach, P. Kenabatho, S. Kralisch.et al. ‘Water research in southern Africa: Data collection and innovative approaches towards climate change adaptation in the water sector.’ Biodiversity & Ecology, vol. 6, pp. 54–68, 2018.
J.D. Neelin, J. F.F. Jin, H.H. Syu. ‘Variations in ENSO phase locking.’ Journal of Climate, vol. 13, pp. 2570–2590, 2000.
D.A. Randall, R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, et al. ‘Climate Models and Their Evaluation.’ In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller, Eds. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press, 2007, pp. 589-662.
M. Hulme, R. Docherty, T. Ngara, M New, D. Lister (2001) ‘African climate change: 1900-2100.’ Climate Research, vol. 17, pp. 145–168, 2001.
I. Niang, O.C. Ruppel, M. Adrabo, E. Ama, C. Lennard, J. Padgham et al. ‘Chapter 22 Africa.’ In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V.R. Barros, C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir et al. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2014, pp. 1199–1265.
M. New, B. Hewitson, D.B. Stephenson, A. Tsiga, A. Kruger, A. Manhique et al. ‘Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa.’ Journaal of Geographycal Research, vol. 111, pp. 1–11, 2006.
L. Zhou, L. R.E. Dickson, A. Dai, P.A. Dirmeyer. ‘Detection and attribution of anthropogenic forcing to diurnal temperature range changes from 1950 to 1999: Comparing multi-model simulations with observations.’ Climate Dynamics, vol. 3, pp. 1289–1307, 2009.
A.C. Kruger, S.S. Sekele. ‘Trends in extreme temperature indices in South Africa?: 1962 – 2009. Climate Service, South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa.’ International Journal of Climate, vol. 33, pp. 661–676, 2013.
P.M. Kiala. ‘Embedding Climate Futures in Spatial Planning for Subsistence Agriculture in the Angolan Central Highlands.’ PhD Thesis, University of Stirling, Scotland UK, 2022.
T. Yan, Z-B. Bai. ‘Spatial and Temporal Changes in Temperature, Precipitation, and Streamflow in the Miyun Reservoir Basin of China.’ Water, vol. 9, pp 1-15, 2017.
M. Hulme, R. Docherty, T. Ngara, M New, D. Lister (2001) ‘African climate change: 1900-2100.’ Climate Research, vol. 17, pp. 145–168, 2001.
M.V.K. Sivakumar, H.P. Das, O. Brunini. ‘Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics.’ Climate Change, vol. 70, pp. 31–72, 2005.
M.E. Hellmuth, A. Moorhead, M.C. Thomson, J. Williams. Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice. Columbia University, New York, USA, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), 2007, pp. 166.
I. Niang, O.C. Ruppel, M. Adrabo, E. Ama, C. Lennard, J. Padgham et al. ‘Chapter 22 Africa.’ In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V.R. Barros, C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir et al. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2014, pp. 1199–1265.
S. Bauer, I. Scholz. ‘Adaptation to climate change in Southern Africa: New boundaries for sustainable development?’ Climate and Development, vol. 2, pp. 83–93, 2010.
P.M. Kiala. ‘Embedding Climate Futures in Spatial Planning for Subsistence Agriculture in the Angolan Central Highlands.’ PhD Thesis, University of Stirling, Scotland UK, 2022.
I. Douglas, K. Alam, M. Maghenda, Y. McDonnell, L. McLean, J.B. campbell. ‘Unjust waters: climate change, flooding and the urban poor in Africa.’ Environment and Urbanization, vol 20, pp. 187–205, 2008.
A.S. Oyekale. ‘Assessment of sustainable land management and food security among climate shocks’ exposed to African farmers.’ The Journal of Developing Areas, vol. 50, pp. 319–332, 2016.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 American Academic Scientific Research Journal for Engineering, Technology, and Sciences
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Authors who submit papers with this journal agree to the following terms.
